He also wrote a book of problems called Pillow Problems. This project looks at one of those problems, a particularly tricky probability problem. Here it is.
The Fifth Pillow Problem
A bag contains one counter, known to be either white or black. A white counter is put in, the bag shaken, and a counter drawn out, which proves to be white. What is now the chance of drawing a white counter?
Most problem solvers quickly decide that the probability of drawing the white counter is one-half. This is wrong.
You could of course Google Lewis Carroll’s Fifth
Pillow Problem to find a derivation of the theoretical probability. Instead,
examine the data from several runs of this project and form your conjecture as
to the chances for drawing a white counter and then look at the theoretical solution.
The project can be viewed and downloaded by clicking on this link.
https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/60235654/